Lets be real. The Mets' starting rotation is all about the future. We know that Zach Wheeler, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, and Rafael Montero will eventually be fixtures in what's poised to be one of the finest young rotations in the major leagues. But Harvey will be sidelined for most if not all of the upcoming season, and both Syndergaard and Montero will start the year in the minor leagues. Wheeler (7-5, 3.42 ERA) is only entering his first full season in the bigs. So its safe to say the rotation of the 2014 Mets is in flux. Sure, they signed Bartolo Colon (18-6, 2.65 ERA) to a 2 year, $22 million dollar deal in the offseason and retained Jon Niese (8-8, 3.74 ERA) and Dillon Gee (12-11, 3.62 ERA). But the 4 man rotation is long dead (unless you're Colorado, and lets face it, no one wants to be Colorado), and the Mets have no established 5th starter. The list of candidates is dreary, but someone has to reach out and grab the job this spring. Lets take a look at each one and what they can bring to the team in 2014.
Jenrry Mejia- 1-2, 2.30 ERA
Mejia has been a source of both great promise and great disappointment for Mets fans over the past 6 years. At one point considered the closer of the future, Mejia has struggled through injuries and multiple demotions. He appeared to find a niche in the rotation last year, making 5 strong starts and posting a 27/4 K/BB ratio over 27.1 innings. However, bone spurs in his pitching elbow ultimately ended Mejia's 2013 season in August, once again putting his future with the team in jeopardy. Although currently the favorite to secure the final rotation spot, his injury history and erratic performance in the past have cost Mejia the opportunity to lock it down.
Carlos Torres- 4-6, 3.44 ERA
Torres was one of the more pleasant surprises of 2013, splitting his time in the majors between the rotation and the bullpen. Posting a 1.11 WHIP and a 75/17 K/BB ratio, Torres was relied on heavily, especially after the injuries of Matt Harvey, Jeremy Hefner, and Mejia. Unfortunately, Torres is 32 and has never pitched a full season at the major league level, let alone spend an entire season as a full time starter. Of the pitchers on this list, I think its safe to label him as the most unlikely to win the job, but a spot in the bullpen seems almost a certainty.
John Lannan- 3-6, 5.33 ERA
The veteran Lannan is the only member of this group that was not a member of the 2013 club. He's also one of the most experienced pitchers of the group, and the only southpaw, which offers significant advantages to a rotation currently featuring only one left-hander (Niese). However, he's coming off of the worst season of his career, which included a trip to the minor leagues. Lannan has only eclipsed 200 innings once in his career, so durability is certainly a concern. Additionally, his 38/27 K/BB ratio raises concerns regarding his control. I would consider Lannan a longshot to land the job, but his experience and left-handednes have earned him an opportunity to compete for it this spring.
Daisuke Matsuzaka- 3-3, 4.42 ERA
Dice-K rebounded nicely nicely last season from an awful four year stretch in Boston. His .227 batting average against was 80 points lower than his previous season with the Red Sox, and he seemed to get stronger as the season progressed. Matsuzaka is also the only pitcher in this group to post a season of 15 or more wins, which he did in back to back years in 2007 and 2008. But once again, durability is an extreme concern. Matsuzaka has only posted 30 starts once in his career, his rookie year, and turns 34 later this year. Like Lannan, I would consider Dice-K a longshot to win the job, especially considering his tendency to start the year slowly.
Cory Mazzoni- 5-3, 4.36 ERA (minors)
Mazzoni is the dark horse in this race. The forgotten man among the Mets' arsenal of young arms, Mazzoni was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2011 draft. He posted a 10-6 record with a 3.93 ERA over both A and AA ball in 2012 before struggling through an injury-riddled 2013 campaign. His peripherals are very strong, averaging over 10 strikeouts per nine innings and walking just 2.6/9. Mazzoni's injury history and lack of experience will weigh heavily against him, but an outstanding spring could very well catapult him into a starting job.
And the winner is...
So, who gets the nod? Terry Collins certainly has an interesting decision on his hands. Jeremy Hefner filled the 5th spot for much of 2013, but he's expected to miss a significant portion of the upcoming season due to Tommy John surgery so I left him off this list. In the past when lacking an established 5th starter, the Mets have often played to their early season schedule by carrying only four starters, and scheduling them around off days. However, this April will feature both a 9 game road trip and 10 game homestand, neither of which include an off day, so it appears that strategy won't be implemented. Of course, spring training performance is going to factor into the ultimate decision, but as of right now I'm going to give the nod to Jenrry Mejia. Despite managing just five starts, his performance in 2013 far outshines those of his competitors, and his elbow problem appears to be behind him. Of course, the option to sign yet another veteran free agent remains. Names like Chris Capuano, Joe Saunders, Clayton Richard, and even Johan Santana have floated around, but in the end I think Mejia has earned an opportunity to begin the season in the starting rotation. What he does with it remains to be seen.
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